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Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: identification by absolute magnitude restrictions

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  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Zimic, Srečko

Abstract

This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We provide a new method based on absolute magnitude restrictions of the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries, connectedness among sovereign yields declined between 2008 and 2012 due to financial fragmentation, particularly between countries with more divergent business and fiscal cycles. We show that none of the sovereign yields are insulated from foreign shocks and that shocks to the Greek bond market in 2010 explained 20-30% of the variance of sovereign yields in stressed countries, while in 2011-2012 Italy (not Spain) was the source of systemic risk. JEL Classification: C3, G2

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2017. "Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: identification by absolute magnitude restrictions," Working Paper Series 2055, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172055
    Note: 185689
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Franch, Fabio & Nocciola, Luca & Vouldis, Angelos, 2022. "Temporal networks in the analysis of financial contagion," Working Paper Series 2667, European Central Bank.
    2. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Spiliotopoulos, Vassilis & Tavlas, George S., 2020. "The effect of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on bank lending during the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Ruben Hipp, 2020. "On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity," Staff Working Papers 20-42, Bank of Canada.
    4. Bettendorf, Timo & Heinlein, Reinhold, 2019. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," Discussion Papers 06/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-Ins, or Bail-Outs?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 665-693, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    connectedness; contagion; fragmentation; sovereign risk; spillovers; SVAR identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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