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What Is Consumer Confidence?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Paul L’Huillier
  • Robert Waldmann
  • Donghoon Yoo

Abstract

This paper offers a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. To this end, we consider a simple consumption model with noisy information about fundamentals and estimate a model-based measure of consumer confidence using national accounts. We show that the model-implied measure corresponds well to fluctuations in confidence survey data for the U.S. and a host of European countries. Our analysis provides an informational mechanism to conceptualize and interpret these widely used confidence indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Robert Waldmann & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "What Is Consumer Confidence?," ISER Discussion Paper 1135r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Dec 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1135r
    as

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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2021/DP1135R.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    2. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    3. George‐Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018. "Quantifying Confidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1689-1726, September.
    4. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "What's News in Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2733-2764, November.
    5. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. L’Huillier, Jean-Paul & Yoo, Donghoon, 2017. "Bad news in the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and other U.S. recessions: A comparative study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 79-98.
    7. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    8. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    9. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    10. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
    11. Michael Rousakis, 2013. "Expectations and Fluctuations: The Role of Monetary Policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 681, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    13. Jean‐Paul L'Huillier & Donghoon Yoo, 2019. "Where is the GE? Consumption Dynamics in DSGEs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1491-1502, September.
    14. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    15. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    16. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1254-1275, November.
    17. Yoo, Donghoon, 2019. "Ambiguous information, permanent income, and consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 79-96.
    18. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    19. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
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