Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Overcoming the Zero Interest-Rate Bound: A Quantitative Prescription

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kenneth Lewis

    ()
    (Department of Economics,University of Delaware)

  • Laurence Seidman

    ()

Abstract

Two recent empirical studies of the 2001 recession published in the American Economic Review imply that an old-fashioned Keynesian fiscal stimulus—a cash transfer (“tax rebate”) or tax cut to households-- can overcome the zero interest-rate bound problem. We provide a quantitative estimate of the cash transfer that would achieve recovery from a severe recession when confronted with the zero bound. We obtain our result by adapting and simulating a macro-econometric model that has been recently econometrically estimated. With the interest rate near zero, a cash transfer equal to 3% of quarterly GDP repeated four times (quarterly) would reduce the unemployment rate nearly a full percentage point.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://graduate.lerner.udel.edu/sites/default/files/ECON/PDFs/RePEc/dlw/WorkingPapers/2006/UDWP2006-14.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Delaware, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06-14.

as in new window
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-14

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Purnell Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716
Phone: (302) 831-2565
Fax: (302) 831-6968
Web page: http://www.lerner.udel.edu/departments/economics/department-economics/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Recession; Fiscal Policy; Tax Rebate;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," Working Papers 119, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  3. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
  5. Tanner, Evan, 2004. "Fiscal rules and countercyclical policy: Frank Ramsey meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 719-731, September.
  6. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Commentary : Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 151-162.
  7. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Did the 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence from Taxpayer Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 83-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
  9. David S. Johnson & Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2004. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," Working Papers 136, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
  10. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 80-84, May.
  11. Fair, Ray C, 2005. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 645-60, August.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
  13. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
  14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Policy Options in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 76-79, May.
  15. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
  16. Tilman Brück & Rudolf Zwiener, 2004. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 427, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  17. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 381-396, March.
  18. Fair Ray C, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, August.
  19. Alan Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Remedies for Deflation," NBER Working Papers 10290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
  21. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March.
  23. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  24. Seidman, Laurence S & Lewis, Kenneth A, 2002. "A New Design for Automatic Fiscal Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 251-84, Summer.
  25. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Mark S. Sniderman & Special Issue, 2000. "Monetary policy in a low-inflation environment: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis, and the Board of Gove," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  26. Johnson, Richard, 2003. "A comparison of the constant-tax rule and a standard fiscal reaction rule in the IMF's MULTIMOD model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 639-653, September.
  27. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  28. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35.
  29. Laurence S Seidman & Kenneth A Lewis, 2006. "A Temporary Tax Rebate in a Recession: Is it Effective and Safe?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 30-39, July.
  30. Ray Fair, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2629, Yale School of Management.
  31. Laurence Seidman, 2001. "Reviving Fiscal Policy," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 17-42, May.
  32. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2004. "Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  33. Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Quantitative and credit easing policies at the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate," MPRA Paper 28129, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Saul Hoffman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.