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Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy

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  • Fair Ray C

    ()
    (Yale University)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4--2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports. Although not tested in this paper, some of the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market decline, in which case most of the explanation is simply the stock market decline itself.

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File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm.2005.5.1/bejm.2005.5.1.1302/bejm.2005.5.1.1302.xml?format=INT
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.5:y:2005:i:1:n:19

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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Cited by:
  1. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2006. "Overcoming the Zero Interest-Rate Bound: A Quantitative Prescription," Working Papers 06-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  2. Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
  3. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.

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