Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
AbstractThe paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4-2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports. Although not tested in this paper, some of the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market decline, in which case most of the explanation is simply the stock market decline itself.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1497.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Topics in Macroeconomics (2005), 5(1): Article 19
Note: CFP 1193
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
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"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2006.
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06-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
- Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
- Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
- Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
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