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The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060

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Christian Dudel
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to show possible consequences of changes in labor force participation of women and the connection between fertility and labor force participation on the future demographic and economic development in Germany. For this purpose a projection model based on micro-data covering the population development as well as the development of the labor force is computed for different scenarios, varying in the extent of changes in female participation rates. The results point to a sharp decline in size of the total population and labor force as well as on negative effects of demographic development on growth, mediated through incompatibility of fertility and participation. It is argued that this incompatibility leads to a demographic dilemma, imposing negative effects on growth either in short or in long term.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in its series SOEPpapers with number 158.

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Length: 28 p.
Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp158

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  1. Bernhard Babel & Eckart Bomsdorf & Rafael Schmidt, 2008. "Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 541-555, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Henriette Engelhardt & Tomas Kögel & Alexia Prskawetz, 2001. "Fertility and women´s employment reconsidered: A macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  3. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2006. "Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-048, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frederic Vermeulen, 2005. "And the winner is... An empirical evaluation of unitary and collective labour supply models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 711-734, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Heather Joshi, 1998. "The opportunity costs of childbearing: More than mothers' business," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 161-183. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Johannes Geyer & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Short-Run and Long-Term Effects of Childbirth on Mothers’ Employment and Working Hours Across Institutional Regimes: An Empirical Analysis Based on the European Community Household Panel," IZA Discussion Papers 2693, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Angelika Tölke & Martin Diewald, 2003. "Insecurities in employment and occupational careers and their impact on the transition to fatherhood in Western Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(3), pages 41-68, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Weber, Andrea Maria & Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Employment of Mothers After Childbirth : French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-50, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact Of Young Workers On The Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Allan Puur & Livia Sz. Oláh & Mariam Irene Tazi-Preve & Jürgen Dorbritz, 2008. "Men's childbearing desires and views of the male role in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(56), pages 1883-1912, November. [Downloadable!]
  12. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Tomas Kögel, 2004. "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Angelika Tölke, 2003. "Insecurities in employment and occupational careers and their impact on the transition to fatherhood in Western Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-41, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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