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Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Bijak

    (Central European Forum for Migration Research)

  • Dorota Kupiszewska

    (Central European Forum for Migration Research)

  • Marek Kupiszewski

    (Central European Forum for Migration Research)

  • Katarzyna Saczuk

    (Central European Forum for Migration Research)

  • Anna Kicinger

    (Central European Forum for Migration Research)

Abstract

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Bijak & Dorota Kupiszewska & Marek Kupiszewski & Katarzyna Saczuk & Anna Kicinger, 2007. "Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:23:y:2007:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-006-9110-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-006-9110-6
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    2. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(9), pages 225-248.
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    5. Sarah Harper, 2013. "Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 525-541, August.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2015. "A Simulation Analysis of the Longer-Term Effects of Immigration on Per Capita Income in an Aging Population," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, McMaster University.
    7. Nick Parr & Ross Guest, 2020. "Migrant Age Profiles and Long‐Run Living Standards in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(2), pages 183-197, June.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Viola Berlepsch, 2019. "Does Population Diversity Matter for Economic Development in the Very Long Term? Historic Migration, Diversity and County Wealth in the US," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 873-911, December.
    9. Bernard Fingleton & Daniel Olner & Gwilym Pryce, 2020. "Estimating the local employment impacts of immigration: A dynamic spatial panel model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(13), pages 2646-2662, October.
    10. Hannes Weber & Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba, 2019. "The Effect of Population Growth on the Environment: Evidence from European Regions," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 379-402, May.
    11. Fernando Gil Alonso, 2009. "Can the rising pension burden in Europe be mitigated by immigration? Modelling the effects of selected demographic and socio-economic factors on ageing in the European Union, 2008-2050," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 123-147.
    12. Raisa Țăruș & Ștefan Dezsi & Florin Pop, 2021. "Ageing Urban Population Prognostic between 2020 and 2050 in Transylvania Region (Romania)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Manfroni, Michele & Velasco-Fernández, Raúl & Pérez-Sánchez, Laura & Bukkens, Sandra G.F. & Giampietro, Mario, 2021. "The profile of time allocation in the metabolic pattern of society: An internal biophysical limit to economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
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