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Patterns of Force: System Strength, Terrorism and Civil War

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  • Andreas Freytag
  • Daniel Meierrieks
  • Angela Münch
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

We jointly analyze the genesis of terrorism and civil war, providing a simple conceptual framework to explain why violent opposition groups choose distinct forms of violence (i.e., terrorism and open rebellion). We argue that the distinct modes of violent opposition are chosen by violent opposition groups in response to the strengths and weaknesses of the system they challenge. An empirical test of this hypothesis for 103 countries for the period of 1992 to 2004 indeed shows that the socio-economic strength and stability of a system is positively related to the likelihood of terrorism but negatively to incidences of more violent forms of violent opposition. We also show that poor conflict management (as a system weakness) positively impacts the likelihood incidences of more violent modes of violent opposition more likely. Furthermore, we find that system size is positively associated with all analyzed modes of violent opposition.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Economics of Security Working Paper Series with number 28.

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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos28

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  1. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard & Mogens Justesen & Robert Klemmensen, 2006. "The political economy of freedom, democracy and transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 289-315, July.
  2. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June.
  3. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 541-550, 04-05.
  4. William Shughart, 2006. "An analytical history of terrorism, 1945–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 7-39, July.
  5. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "Repression or civil war?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33748, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2008. "What causes terrorism?," Working Papers CIE 12, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  8. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
  9. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
  10. Abadie, Alberto, 2004. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," Working Paper Series rwp04-043, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  11. Atin Basuchoudhary & William Shughart, 2010. "On Ethnic Conflict And The Origins Of Transnational Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87.
  12. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2008. "What causes terrorism?," Working Papers 12, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Brzoska & Raphael Bossong & Eric van Um, 2011. "Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 58, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Krisztina Kis-Katos & Helge Liebert & Guenther G. Schulze, 2012. "On the Heterogeneity of Terror," Discussion Paper Series 19, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised May 2012.

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