Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility
AbstractThere are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2012-003.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
Other versions of this item:
- Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko MyrskylÃ¤, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-02-20 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-02-20 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Scott Lynch & J. Brown, 2001. "Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 79-95, February.
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010.
"Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?,"
Working Papers, Institut National d'Ãtudes DÃ©mographiques (INED)
167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers, HAL hal-00520948, HAL.
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