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What Shapes Young Elite Athletes' Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?

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  • Verena Jung
  • Sascha L. Schmidt
  • Benno Torgler

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilising a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behaviour. In particular, we analyse how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes’ perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) in its series CREMA Working Paper Series with number 2012-14.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cra:wpaper:2012-14

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Keywords: Perception of chances; unrealistic optimism; ipsative possibility set; integration effects; soccer;

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  1. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1899, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Cramer, J. S. & Hartog, J. & Jonker, N. & Van Praag, C. M., 2002. "Low risk aversion encourages the choice for entrepreneurship: an empirical test of a truism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-36, May.
  3. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
  4. Markus Schaffner & Benno Torgler, 2008. "Meet the Joneses: An Empirical Investigation of Reference Groups in Relative Income Position Comparisons," CREMA Working Paper Series, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) 2008-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
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