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What Shapes Young Elite Athletes' Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?

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Author Info

  • Verena Jung

    ()
    (EBS Business School)

  • Sascha L. Schmidt

    ()
    (EBS Business School)

  • Benno Torgler

    ()
    (QUT)

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilising a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behaviour. In particular, we analyse how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes' perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.

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File URL: http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents/discussionPapers/2012/WP292.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 292.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 14 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:292

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Keywords: Perception of chances; unrealistic optimism; ipsative possibility set; integration effects; soccer;

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  1. Cramer, J. S. & Hartog, J. & Jonker, N. & Van Praag, C. M., 2002. "Low risk aversion encourages the choice for entrepreneurship: an empirical test of a truism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-36, May.
  2. Friedrich Schneider & Benno Torgler, 2007. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Economics working papers 2007-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  3. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
  4. Markus Schaffner & Benno Torgler, 2008. "Meet the Joneses: An Empirical Investigation of Reference Groups in Relative Income Position Comparisons," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 234, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, revised 17 Jun 2008.
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