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Prudential Policy for Peggers

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  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie
  • Uribe, Martín
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    Abstract

    This paper shows that in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity pegging the nominal exchange rate creates a negative pecuniary externality. This peg-induced externality is shown to cause unemployment, overborrowing, and depressed levels of consumption. The paper characterizes the optimal capital control policy and shows that it is prudential in nature. For it restricts capital inflows in good times and subsidizes external borrowing in bad times. Under plausible calibrations of the model, this type of macro prudential policy is shown to lower the average unemployment rate by 10 percentage points, reduce average external debt by more than 50 percent, and increase welfare by over 7 percent of consumption per period.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8961.

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    Date of creation: May 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8961

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    Related research

    Keywords: capital controls; currency pegs; downward wage rigidity; pecuniary externality;

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    References

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    1. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Leonardo Auernheimer, 2000. "International Debt and the Price of Domestic Assets," IMF Working Papers 00/177, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Huigang Chen & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci & Eric Young, 2010. "Revisiting Overborrowing and its Policy Implications," Research Department Publications 4676, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arnaud Costinot & Guido Lorenzoni & Iv�n Werning, 2014. "A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-Trade Manipulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 77 - 128.
    7. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
    9. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    10. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia, 2010. "Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence: an Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 594, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Michael W. L. Elsby, 2005. "Evaluating the Economic Significance of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0704, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Martín Uribe, 2006. "Individual Versus Aggregate Collateral Constraints and the Overborrowing Syndrome," NBER Working Papers 12260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jeanne, Olivier, 2013. "Macroprudential policies in a global perspective," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-38.
    2. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2014. "The Financial Resource Curse," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 58-86, 01.
    3. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2013. "Capital Controls, Global Liquidity Traps and the International Policy Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 19091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 19704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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