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Debt Deleveraging and the Exchange Rate

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  • Benigno, Pierpaolo
  • Romei, Federica

Abstract

Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. The exchange rate of the deleveraging country will depreciate in the short run and appreciate in the long run. The real interest rate will fall by more than in the rest of the world. Bounds and policies that constrain the adjustment can prolong and deepen the recession. Early exit strategies from accommodating monetary policy can be quite harmful, as can such other policies as keeping interest rates too high during the deleveraging period. The analysis also applies to a monetary union facing internal adjustment of current account imbalances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8938.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8938

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Keywords: Current Account adjustment;

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References

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  1. Thomas Philippon & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Household Leverage and the Recession," 2013 Meeting Papers 335, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Ippei Fujiwara & Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound and Monetary Policy in a Global Economy: A Simple Analytical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 103-134, March.
  3. Ippei Fujiwara & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2011. "Global Liquidity Trap," KIER Working Papers 780, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Martin S. Feldstein, 2011. "The Role of Currency Realignments in Eliminating the US and China Current Account Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Luca Fornaro, 2012. "International debt deleveraging," Economics Working Papers 1401, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2014. "Do Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  3. Bussirère, Matthieu & Lopez, Claude & Tille, Cédric, 2013. "Currency Crises in Reverse: Do Large Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?," MPRA Paper 44053, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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