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Ethnicity and the spread of civil war

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  • Bosker, Maarten
  • de Ree, Joppe

Abstract

Civil wars critically hinder a country's development process. This paper shows that civil wars can also have severe international consequences. Anecdotal evidence highlights that civil wars sometimes spill over international boundaries. Using a more rigorous econometric approach we provide evidence that conflict spillovers are indeed quantitatively very important. Also, they are context dependent. Ethnicity in particular plays a key role in the spread of civil war. Only ethnic civil wars spill over, and only along ethnic lines. We do not find evidence that poor, ethnically heterogenous, or less populous countries are more or less susceptible to spillovers. Ethnic links to a neighbor at ethnic civil war increase the probability of an outbreak of ethnic civil war at home by 6 percentage points.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8055.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8055

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Related research

Keywords: civil war; conflict spillovers; ethnicity;

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References

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  1. Thoenig, Mathias & Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Open Access publications from Sciences Po info:hdl:2441/10149, Sciences Po.
  2. Paul Collier & Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Democracy, Development, and Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 531-540, 04-05.
  3. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
  4. Olaf De Groot, 2011. "Culture, Contiguity and Conflict: On the Measurement of Ethnolinguistic Effects in Spatial Spillovers," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 436-454.
  5. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
  6. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 2000. "Throwing out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Yoon and Kim," Working Papers 1090, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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Cited by:
  1. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2011. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," NBER Working Papers 17620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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