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Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis Using Central Bank Intervention

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Fischer, Andreas M

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Abstract

Price clustering is a well-documented regularity of foreign exchange transactions. In this Paper, I present new empirical evidence of price clustering for central bank interventions. A feature of the price clustering in Swiss National Bank (SNB) transactions is market dependency. Evidence of clustering in the broker market is considerably smaller than in the dealer market. The empirical analysis for Swiss interventions uses a disaggregate approach to test the hypothesis whether intervention strategy matters. The most important determinants of price clustering are bank size and transaction volume. While the regression evidence for customer transactions is consistent with the efficiency hypothesis, the clustering results for intervention trades are not influenced by the SNB’s intervention tactics.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4529.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4529

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Related research
Keywords: Central Bank Interventions; Clustering; E33; Intervention Strategy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Sopranzetti, Ben J. & Datar, Vinay, 2002. "Price clustering in foreign exchange spot markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 411-417, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68. [Downloadable!]
  3. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-77.
  4. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Grossman, Sanford J, et al, 1997. "Clustering and Competition in Asset Markets," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 23-60, April.
  9. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harris, Lawrence, 1991. "Stock Price Clustering and Discreteness," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 389-415. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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