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China's Great Leap: Forward or Backward? Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster

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Author Info
An, Mark Yuying
Li, Wei
Yang, Dennis Tao

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Abstract

The Great Leap Forward (GLF) disaster, characterized by a collapse of grain output, and the associated famine in China between 1959 and 1961, can be attributed to a systemic failure in central planning. Encouraged by unrealistic expectations for agricultural productivity gains from collectivization, the government switched to an accelerated and infeasible timetable for industrialization. Consequently, it diverted massive amounts of agricultural resources to industry and imposed excessive grain procurement burdens on peasants, leaving them with insufficient food to sustain labour productivity. Grain output fell sharply at the onset of these policies and started to recover gradually when the policies were reversed. Official data and our supplementary survey data support the theoretical prediction regarding the dynamic progression of the disaster. They also show that over 80% of the decline in grain output is attributable to the policies of excessive procurement and resource diversion.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2824.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2824

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Related research
Keywords: Agricultural Crisis Central Planning China Grain Procurement Industrialization Resource Diversion Work Capacity

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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  1. Martin Ravallion, 1997. "Famines and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1205-1242, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lin, Justin Yifu & Yang, Dennis Tao, 1998. "On the causes of China's agricultural crisis and the great leap famine," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-140. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Behrman, Jere R. & Foster, Andrew D. & Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1997. "The dynamics of agricultural production and the calorie-income relationship: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 187-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Strauss, John & Thomas, Duncan, 1995. "Human resources: Empirical modeling of household and family decisions," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1883-2023 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Strauss, J. & Thomas, D., 1995. "Empirical Modeling of Household and Family Decisions," Papers 95-12, RAND - Reprint Series.
  6. MacLeod W. Bentley, 1993. "The Role of Exit Costs in the Theory of Cooperative Teams: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 521-529, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sherwin Rosen, 1999. "Potato Paradoxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S294-29, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Dasgupta, Partha, 1997. "Nutritional status, the capacity for work, and poverty traps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Putterman Louis & Skillman Gilbert L., 1993. "Collectivization and China's Agricultural Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 530-539, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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