The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

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The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

Author Info

Alex Armstrong
Nick Draper ()
Ed Westerhout ()

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Abstract

The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Papers with number 104.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:104

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-AGE-2008-07-14 (Economics of Ageing)
NEP-ALL-2008-07-14 (All new papers)
NEP-CMP-2008-07-14 (Computational Economics)
NEP-EEC-2008-07-14 (European Economics)
NEP-PUB-2008-07-14 (Public Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "New developments in the economic analysis of retirement," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 49, pages 3261-3307 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Olivia S. Mitchell, . "New Developments in the Economic Analysis of Retirement," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-8, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA, a Simulation Model for Ageing, Pensions and Public Finances," CPB Documents 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
Martin Weale, 2006. "Fiscal Implications of Demographic Uncertainty: Comparisons across the European Union," NIESR Discussion Papers 279, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

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