A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving
AbstractWe live in an uncertain world, yet a lot of research into the sustainability of welfare states is done in the context of certainty. There are good reasons why the analysis is mostly confined to a model of a certain world. A full analysis of the sustainability of welfare states which includes all relevant economic interactions is already intricate in a certain world because it requires the use of complex dynamic general equilibrium models. Even without stochastics, understanding all the mechanisms and its results is sometimes difficult. In addition, when building stochastics into these type of models one may run into the limitations of computer capacity. In this paper we investigate whether uncertainty on the real rate of return on capital and productivity growth (labelled as economic uncertainty) is more or less important than mortality and fertility uncertainty (labelled as demographic uncertainty) for a consumer facing a decision how much to save. Furthermore we look at the errors that are made when uncertainty is neglected in consumer behaviour. The results indicate that economic uncertainty is far more important than demographic uncertainty. The welfare costs of neglecting uncertainty in consumer behaviour seem to be small.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Memorandum with number 168.
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 1999.
"Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
7036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kevin A. Hassett & Alan J. Auerbach, 2009. "Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 25536, American Enterprise Institute.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1995.
"Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance,"
NBER Working Papers
4884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992.
"Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
- Zvi Bodie & Robert C. Merton & William F. Samuelson, 1992. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 3954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982.
"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital,"
532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
- Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003.
"The Gains from Pension Reform,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
- Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Seminar Papers 712, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Working Paper Series 580, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Gruber, 1995. "Unemployment Insurance and Precautionary Saving," NBER Working Papers 5252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
- Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July.
- Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December.
- Luis M. Viceira, 2001.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, 04.
- Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 7409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
- Du Cai Cai & Muysken Joan & Sleijpen Olaf, 2010.
"Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system,"
055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Cai Cai Du & Joan Muysken & Olaf Sleijpen, 2011. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," DNB Working Papers 286, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Alessandro Bucciol & Roel M.W.J. Beetsma, 2010.
"Inter- and Intra-generational Consequences of Pension Buffer Policy under Demographic, Financial, and Economic Shocks,"
CESifo Economic Studies,
CESifo, vol. 56(3), pages 366-403, September.
- Alessandro Bucciol & Roel Beetsma, 2009. "Inter- and Intra-generational Consequences of Pension Buffer Policy under Demographic, Financial and Economic Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 2779, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & AndrÃ© Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.