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Fiscal Prefunding in Response to Demographic Uncertainty

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Author Info
Alex Armstrong
Nick Draper ()
André Nibbelink ()
Ed Westerhout ()

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Abstract

Uncertainty in demographic developments lowers expected future welfare levels. Increasing current tax rates and decreasing expected future tax rates may compensate part of the welfare loss that is due to demographic uncertainty. In doing so, the government effectively pursues a precautionary fiscal policy analogous to the precautionary life-cycle saving behaviour that households may exhibit in the presence of income uncertainty.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Papers with number 85.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:85

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Demographic Uncertainty;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "New developments in the economic analysis of retirement," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 49, pages 3261-3307 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA, a Simulation Model for Ageing, Pensions and Public Finances," CPB Documents 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kingston, Geoffrey, 1991. "Should Marginal Tax Rates Be Equalized Through Time?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 911-24, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Francisco Gomes & Laurence Kotlikoff & Luis Viceira, 2006. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision," Working Papers wp123, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memoranda 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publications 61, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-8.

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