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The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza

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  • George Verikios
  • Maura Sullivan
  • Pane Stojanovski
  • James Giesecke
  • Gordon Woo

Abstract

We analyse the global economic effects of two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence-low infectiousness event and a low virulence-high infectiousness event. We do this by applying results from a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model to a detailed, quarterly computable general equilibrium model. Our findings indicate that global economic activity will be more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. At the regional level, regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy will be affected more strongly than less integrated regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-224.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-224

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Related research

Keywords: computable general equilibrium; pandemic influenza; quarterly periodicity;

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  1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2003. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2003-16, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
  3. J.A. Giesecke & W.J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & M. Suher, 2010. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of a RDD attack scenario," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre g-194, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 251, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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