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Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Walmsley, Terrie
  • Rose, Adam
  • John, Richard
  • Wei, Dan
  • Hlávka, Jakub P.
  • Machado, Juan
  • Byrd, Katie

Abstract

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as “shocks” to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:120:y:2023:i:c:s0264999322003844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106147
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    Cited by:

    1. Gearhart, Richard & Michieka, Nyakundi & Anders, Anne, 2023. "The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 376-394.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaster economics; CGE Modeling; COVID-19; Avoidance behavior; Resilience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other

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