IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/fortra/v55y2020i3p337-371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie Walmsley
  • Peter Minor

Abstract

In 2018, the United States (US) Administration initiated several trade actions, including tariffs on China for unfair trade practices outlined by the US Trade Representative (USTR). In response, China filed requests for consultations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has implemented or threatened to implement increased tariffs on US products. In this article, the implications of current and potential US trade actions and responses by China on the US and global economy are estimated. We employ a dynamic supply chain model based on the widely used Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base and model. Our analysis finds that US gross domestic product (GDP) would be reduced by a projected –0.86 per cent in 2030 (or US$227.8 billion in 2017 dollars), as the role of the USA in global supply chains declines significantly. China’s GDP would also decline considerably by 2.84 per cent as a result of the actions imposed against it, while the rest of the world gain, as they fill the gaps left by US and Chinese producers. JEL: F16, C68

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Walmsley & Peter Minor, 2020. "US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(3), pages 337-371, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:55:y:2020:i:3:p:337-371
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732520920465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0015732520920465
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0015732520920465?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minghao Li & Edward J. Balistreri & Wendong Zhang, 2018. "The 2018 Trade War: Data and Nascent General Equilibrium Analysis," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-wp587, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates In The Gtap Data Base," Technical Papers 28721, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7382, CESifo.
    5. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107002432.
    6. Ken Itakura, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 77-93, January.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    8. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, October.
    9. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    10. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694.
    11. Petri, Peter A., 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration," 2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012, San Diego, California 143184, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Terrie Walmsley & Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2021. "The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-52, April.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2022. "Winners and losers in global supply chain trade: Embedding GSC in CGE," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Adam Rose & Terrie Walmsley & Dan Wei, 2021. "Spatial transmission of the economic impacts of COVID-19 through international trade," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-196, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    2. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    3. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Ken Itakura, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 77-93, January.
    5. Van Ha, Pham & Kompas, Tom & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & Long, Chu Hoang, 2017. "Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-113.
    6. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    7. Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2018. "State-owned enterprise reform in Vietnam: A dynamic CGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 42-57.
    8. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    9. Ken Itakura, . "Assessing the Economic Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on ASEAN Member States," Chapters, in: Lili Yan Ing (ed.), East Asian Integration (First Edition), chapter 1, pages 1-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    10. Ken Itakura & Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ikumo Isono, 2013. "A CGE Study of Economic Impact of Accession of Hong Kong to ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers DP-2013-06, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    11. Kenichi Kawasaki & Badri G. Narayanan & Houssein Guimbard & Arata Kuno, 2019. "Analysis of the Role of Tariff Concessions in East Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 141-167, May.
    12. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2014. "The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-262.
    13. J.A. Giesecke & R. Waschik & N.H. Tran, 2019. "Modelling the Consequences of the U.S.-China Trade War and Related Trade Frictions for the U.S., Chinese, Australian and Global Economies," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-294, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    14. Rebecca Sta. Maria & Shujiro Urata & Ponciano S. Intal, 2017. "ASEAN @ 50 Volume 5: The ASEAN Economic Community Into 2025 and Beyond," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2017-asean@50-5 edited by Rebecca Sta. Maria & Shujiro Urata & Ponciano S. Intal, July.
    15. Cheong, Inkyo, 2013. "Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Evaluation and Implications for East Asian Regionalism," ADBI Working Papers 428, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2015. "Mega-regional free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific: How do productivity gains, cost mitigations and agricultural policy reforms affect the results?," Conference papers 332589, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Alessandro Antimiani & Valeria Costantini & Anil Markandya & Chiara Martini & Alessandro Palma, 2014. "A dynamic CGE modelling approach for analyzing trade-offs in climate change policy options: the case of Green Climate Fund," Working Papers 2014-05, BC3.
    18. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2016. "The Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Japan: Agricultural Policy Reforms and Productivity Gains," Conference papers 332771, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2015. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Mega-Regional Free Trade Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific," OSIPP Discussion Paper 15E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    20. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen Rimmer & Nhi Tran, 2019. "GTAP-MVH, A Model for Analysing the Worldwide Effects of Trade Policies in the Motor Vehicle Sector: Theory and Data," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-290, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. trade actions; China; supply chains; tariffs; global trade model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:55:y:2020:i:3:p:337-371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.