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A CGE Study of Economic Impact of Accession of Hong Kong to ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Ken Itakura

    (Faculty of Economics, Nagoya City University, Japan)

  • Yoshifumi Fukunaga

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

  • Ikumo Isono

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

Abstract

We conduct a set of global computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulations to evaluate economic effects of Hong Kong’s accession to the ASEAN-China FTA (HK-ACFTA) by implementing tariff elimination, logistics, enhancement, and reduction in service trade barriers. All the participating countries can benefit from the accession, resulted in higher real GDP and economic welfare.The welfare gain becomes the largest when HK-ACFTA improves the existing agreement and trade facilitation programs between ASEAN and China. The simulation results indicate that such trade facilitation could generate considerable export volume increases for both ASEAN and China

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Itakura & Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ikumo Isono, 2013. "A CGE Study of Economic Impact of Accession of Hong Kong to ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers DP-2013-06, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kohei SHIINO, 2013. "How Far Will Hong Kong's Accession to ACFTA Impact its Trade in Goods?," Working Papers DP-2013-04, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    2. Marn-Heong Wong & Marie Isabelle Pellan, 2012. "Trade Facilitation: The Way Forward for ASEAN and Its FTA Partners," Working Papers PB-2012-04, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107002432.
    5. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694.
    6. Yoshifumi Fukunaga & Ikumo Isono, 2013. "Taking ASEAN+1 FTAs towards the RCEP: A Mapping Study," Working Papers DP-2013-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FTA; computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; tariff elimination; services liberalization; trade facilitation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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