IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ieroec/v13y2022i2p355-377.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Andrej Privara

    (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia)

Abstract

Research background: The world has been fighting the new pandemic caused by COVID-19 since March 2020. The subsequent restrictions on economic activity resulted in a supply shock, accompanied by a supply chain disruption, job layoffs, reduced work time and wages and decreased disposable incomes and taxes, which led to a demand shock. However, whether a close link exists between the number of confirmed cases, deaths and economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. Purpose of the article: The current study aims to analyse the impact of the number of infections and deaths on economic growth and labour market indicators in the member states of the European Union. Methods: To achieve the main research goal, we conduct a panel data analysis on the quarterly data of 2020. Specifically, we developed three random-effects panel data econometric models to estimate the significance of infection and mortality rates for economic growth as well as employment and unemployment rates. Findings & value added: This study contributes to the existing literature by analysing the link between the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 and selecting macro-economic indicators within the European Union. The results show that the infection rate is not a significant variable for economic growth and labour market indicators. However, an increase in the number of confirmed deaths has a significantly negative impact on the economy. Moreover, an increase in the mortality rate has a worse impact on the labour market than on economic growth in general. These results can serve as a theoretical basis for future research on the interconnections between pandemics and macro-economic indicators. The findings can also contribute to developing efficient policy instruments for mitigating the negative impact of pandemics in the future, thereby ensuring the cooperation of fiscal, monetary and health policy authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Privara, 2022. "Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 355-377, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:13:y:2022:i:2:p:355-377
    DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/oc.2022.011
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/oc.2022.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tadeusz Kufel, 2020. "ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 181-204, June.
    2. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Government Effectiveness and the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Ettore Gallo, 2021. "Infection Is the Cycle: Unemployment, Output and Economic Policies in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 377-393, July.
    5. Beata Gavurova & Jaroslav Belas & Yuriy Bilan & Jakub Horak, 2020. "Study of legislative and administrative obstacles to SMEs business in the Czech Republic and Slovakia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 689-719, December.
    6. Humayun Kabir, 2021. "Notion of Belonging in the Nation-State: Gendered Construction of International Migration Aspirations among University Students in Bangladesh," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 18(4), pages 463-476, July.
    7. Péter Halmai, 2021. "COVID-crisis and economic growth: Tendencies on potential growth in the European Union," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(supplemen), pages 165-186, November.
    8. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    10. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.
    12. Guven, Murat & Cetinguc, Basak & Guloglu, Bulent & Calisir, Fethi, 2022. "The effects of daily growth in COVID-19 deaths, cases, and governments’ response policies on stock markets of emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    14. Roni Bhowmik & Gouranga Chandra Debnath & Raja Fawad Zafar & BruceLortile Lormon, 2021. "Creative Industry In Terms Of Covid-2019 Pandemic: European Countries Responsive Measures," Pressburg Economic Review, Pressburg Economic Centre, London, UK, vol. 1(1), pages 9-17, December.
    15. Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    16. Krzysztof Waliszewski & Anna Warchlewska, 2021. "Comparative analysis of Poland and selected countries in terms of household financial behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 577-615, September.
    17. David Havrlant & Abdulelah Darandary & Abdelrahman Muhsen, 2021. "Early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: a case study of Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 1317-1325, March.
    18. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Panagiotis Tsigaris & Anetta Caplanova & Rudolf Sivak, 2017. "A behavioral portfolio approach to multiple job holdings," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 669-689, June.
    19. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    20. Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawel Niedziolka, 2020. "Resistance of commercial banks to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Poland," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 205-234, June.
    21. Azael Carrasco Sierra & Maria Jesus Cobos Flores & Beatriz Fuentes Duarte & Boris Isauro Hernandez Comi, 2020. "Successful Management System By A Metalworking Mexican Company During Covid-19 Situation. Analysis Through A New Index (Case Study)," International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, Center for International Scientific Research of VSO and VSPP, vol. 8(2), pages 42-55, June.
    22. Ekaterina Vorobeva & Léo-Paul Dana, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and migrant entrepreneurship: Responses to the market shock," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 18(4), pages 477-485, July.
    23. Uzi Rebhun, 2021. "Inter-Country Variations in COVID-19 Incidence from a Social Science Perspective," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 18(4), pages 413-423, July.
    24. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    25. Pedro Pardal & Rui Dias & Petr Suler & Nuno Teixeira & Tomas Krulicky, 2020. "Integration in Central European capital markets in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(4), pages 627-650, December.
    26. Zhang, Hanyuan & Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    27. Jaime Pinilla & Patricia Barber & Laura Vallejo-Torres & Silvia Rodríguez-Mireles & Beatriz G. López-Valcárcel & Luis Serra-Majem, 2021. "The Economic Impact of the SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic in Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-13, April.
    28. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura & Yuan, Mengying & Zhou, Shihao, 2022. "Save lives or save livelihoods? A cross-country analysis of COVID-19 pandemic and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 221-256.
    29. C. T. Vidya & K. P. Prabheesh, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2408-2421, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Sękala & Krzysztof Foit & Damian Krenczyk & Tomasz Blaszczyk & Gabriel Kost & Mariola Jureczko, 2023. "The Impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic on Master Graduates’ Employability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Tetiana Vasylieva & Beata Gavurova & Tetiana Dotsenko & Svitlana Bilan & Marcin Strzelec & Samer Khouri, 2023. "The Behavioral and Social Dimension of the Public Health System of European Countries: Descriptive, Canonical, and Factor Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-35, March.
    3. Yugang He & Ziqian Zhang, 2022. "Energy and Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-13, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joanna Landmesser, 2021. "The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 539-556, September.
    2. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    3. Andriy Stavytskyy & Ganna Kharlamova & Olena Komendant & Jarosław Andrzejczak & Joanna Nakonieczny, 2021. "Methodology for Calculating the Energy Security Index of the State: Taking into Account Modern Megatrends," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Marcin Bogdański, 2021. "Employment Diversification as a Determinant of Economic Resilience and Sustainability in Provincial Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Feng, Gen-Fu & Yang, Hao-Chang & Gong, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 705-719.
    6. Enrico Berbenni & Stefano Colombo, 2021. "The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 219-243, June.
    7. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    8. Lolea Iulian Cornel & Stamule Simona, 2021. "Trading using Hidden Markov Models during COVID-19 turbulences," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 334-351, December.
    9. Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Dominika Gajdosikova, 2021. "Distinctive determinants of financial indebtedness: evidence from Slovak and Czech enterprises," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(3), pages 639-659, September.
    10. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    12. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Fenske, James & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Yuan, Song, 2020. "Demographic shocks and women’s labor market participation: evidence from the 1918 influenza pandemic in India," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 494, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Christian Møller Dahl & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2022. "The 1918 epidemic and a V‐shaped recession: evidence from historical tax records," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 139-163, January.
    16. Jeremy Phillipson & Matthew Gorton & Roger Turner & Mark Shucksmith & Katie Aitken-McDermott & Francisco Areal & Paul Cowie & Carmen Hubbard & Sara Maioli & Ruth McAreavey & Diogo Souza-Monteiro & Rob, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Implications for Rural Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-9, May.
    17. Edwin Yingi, 2022. "Beyond the pandemic: Implications of COVID-19 on regional economic integration in Southern Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(2), pages 270-279, March.
    18. Takahashi, Hidenori & Yamada, Kazuo, 2021. "When the Japanese stock market meets COVID-19: Impact of ownership, China and US exposure, and ESG channels," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2020. "The causes and consequences of the 1918 influenza in South Africa," Working Papers 12/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    20. Tiberiu Cristian Avrămescu, 2020. "Assessments on the Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economies of the Central and South-East European Union Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 105-112, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; economic growth; pandemic; labour market; crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:13:y:2022:i:2:p:355-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.