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ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries

Author

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  • Tadeusz Kufel

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Poland)

Abstract

Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadeusz Kufel, 2020. "ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 181-204, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:15:y:2020:i:2:p:181-204
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.2020.009
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > Statistical Modelling

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaetano Perone, 2022. "Using the SARIMA Model to Forecast the Fourth Global Wave of Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19: Evidence from 12 Hard-Hit Big Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Iwona Markowicz & Iga Rudawska, 2021. "Struggling with COVID-19—A Framework for Assessing Health System Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Magdalena Osińska & Wojciech Zalewski, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of the road transport industry in Poland to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 331-354, February.
    4. Eva Daniela Cvik & Radka MacGregor Pelikánová, 2021. "The Significance of CSR During COVID-19 Pandemic in the Luxury Fashion Industry - A Front-Line Case Study," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 109-126.
    5. Tadeusz Kufel, 2021. "Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 875-890.
    6. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Sara Ayllón & Halla Holmarsdottir & Samuel Lado, 2023. "Digitally Deprived Children in Europe," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 16(3), pages 1315-1339, June.
    8. Yugang He & Ziqian Zhang, 2022. "Energy and Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-13, September.
    9. Ramona Pîrvu & George H. Ionescu & Elena Jianu & Luiza Loredana Nastase & Raducu ?tefan Bratu, 2023. "E-Waste and Responsible Consumption in EU Countries – Developments and Forecasts 2025-2030," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(62), pages 147-147, February.
    10. Marcin Bogdański, 2021. "Employment Diversification as a Determinant of Economic Resilience and Sustainability in Provincial Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, April.
    11. Perone, G., 2020. "Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/18, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Dariusz Piotrowski, 2021. "Shaping the Public Perception of Economic Phenomena During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Priority of Goals or Values?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 528-564.
    13. Joanna Landmesser, 2021. "The use of the dynamic time warping (DTW) method to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 539-556, September.
    14. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    15. Emerson Abraham Jackson, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 29-43, January.
    16. Loredana Mihalca & Lucia Ratiu & Gabriela Brendea & Daniel Metz & Mihaela Dragan & Florin Dobre, 2021. "Exhaustion while teleworking during COVID-19: a moderated-mediation model of role clarity, self-efficacy, and task interdependence," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 269-306, June.
    17. Węgrzyn Grażyna, 2023. "Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transition of people on the Polish labor market – hidden threats," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(2), pages 168-179, June.
    18. Andrej Privara, 2022. "Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 355-377, June.
    19. Andriy Stavytskyy & Ganna Kharlamova & Olena Komendant & Jarosław Andrzejczak & Joanna Nakonieczny, 2021. "Methodology for Calculating the Energy Security Index of the State: Taking into Account Modern Megatrends," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    20. Abdallah S. A. Yaseen, 2022. "Impact of social determinants on COVID-19 infections: a comprehensive study from Saudi Arabia governorates," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 epidemic; ARIMA model; forecasting; infection control; non-pharmaceutical intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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