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El efecto de las intervenciones cambiarias: la experiencia colombiana 2004-2006

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  • Mauricio A. Hernández Monsalve

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  • Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas

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Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es medir el tamaño relativo de las intervenciones cambiarias realizadas en el periodo de la revaluación del peso, entre 2004 y 2006, y calcular la efectividad de éstas en cuanto a sus efectos sobre la media y la varianza del tipo de cambio nominal. La propuesta de un modelo de determinación del tipo de cambio, que parte del modelo de balance de portafolio, y el uso de un índice de intervención construido para el caso colombiano, permiten concluir que las intervenciones del Banco de la República, con miras a defender el régimen de flotación controlada, han tenido efectos pequeños y transitorios en el nivel y la varianza del tipo de cambio, presentando rezagos de varios días y siendo descontadas rápidamente por el mercadoThe object of this article is to measure the relative size of the exchange interventions made in the period of the peso revaluation, between 2004 and 2006, and to calculate the effectiveness of these by mean of its effects on the average and the variance of the exchange nominal rate. The proposal of a model of determination of the exchange nominal rate, that derive from the portfolio balance model, and the use of an intervention index constructed for the Colombian case, allow to conclude that the interventions of the Banco de la República, for defending the regime of managed flotation, have had small and transitory effects in the level and the variance of the exchange nominal rate, presenting lags of several days and being discounted quickly by the market

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE in its series BORRADORES DEL CIE with number 004192.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:col:000099:004192

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Keywords: intervenciones esterilizadas; régimen cambiario; flotación controlada; mercado cambiario; tipo de cambio; modelo de portafolio;

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  1. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2003. "Managed floating as a monetary policy strategy," Munich Reprints in Economics 20206, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  3. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 9654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1988. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 2249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed floating: Understanding the new international monetary order," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 30, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  10. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  11. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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