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The economic consequences of crime in Italy

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  • OA. Carboni
  • C. Detotto

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Abstract

This paper employs provincial data to study the relationship between several crime typologies, namely murder, theft, robbery and fraud, and economic output in Italy. We employ a spatial econometric approach where the spatial proximity is defined by a measure of physical distance between locations, in order to take into account possible spill-over effects. The model used here combines a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances. In modelling the outcome for each location depends on a weighted average of the outcomes of other locations. Outcomes are determined simultaneously. The results of the spatial two stage least square estimation suggest that the homicide rate has a negative impact on Italian gross domestic product while theft, robbery and fraud do not affect economic output and that there are beneficial spill-overs from neighbouring provinces.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 201303.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201303

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Keywords: spatial weights; spatial models; growth; crime; crowding-out effect;

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  1. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  2. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2012. "Economic Growth and Crime: Does Uncertainty Matter?," Working Paper Series 51_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Claudio Detotto & Edoardo Otranto, 2010. "Does Crime Affect Economic Growth?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 330-345, 08.
  5. C. Detotto & M. Pulina, 2009. "Does more crime mean fewer jobs? An ARDL model," Working Paper CRENoS 200905, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  6. David M. Drukker & Hua Peng & Ingmar Prucha & Rafal Raciborski, 2011. "SPPACK: Stata module for cross-section spatial-autoregressive models," Statistical Software Components S457245, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 08 Nov 2012.
  7. Luciano Mauro & Gaetano Carmeci, 2007. "A Poverty Trap of Crime and Unemployment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 450-462, 08.
  8. Daniele, Vittorio & Marani, Ugo, 2011. "Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 132-142, March.
  9. OA. Carboni, 2012. "A Spatial Analysis of R&D: the Role of Industry Proximity," Working Paper CRENoS 201204, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  10. C. Detotto & E. Otranto, 2010. "Cycles in Crime and Economy: Leading, Lagging and Coincident Behaviors," Working Paper CRENoS 201023, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  11. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
  12. Anselin, Luc, 1990. "Some robust approaches to testing and estimation in spatial econometrics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 141-163, September.
  13. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August.
  14. Hordijk, L., 1974. "Spatial correlation in the disturbances of a linear interregional model," Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 117-140, October.
  15. Irani Arraiz & David M. Drukker & Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2010. "A Spatial Cliff-Ord-Type Model With Heteroskedastic Innovations: Small And Large Sample Results," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 592-614.
  16. C. Detotto & M. Vannini, 2010. "Counting the cost of crime in Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201013, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
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