Cycles in Crime and Economy: Leading, Lagging and Coincident Behaviors
AbstractIn the last decades, the interest in the relationship between crime and business cycle has widely increased. It is a diffused opinion that a causal relationship goes from economic variables to criminal activities. This work aims to verify this proposition by using the dynamic factor model to analyze the common cyclical components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a large set of criminal types. Italy is the case study for the time span 1991 - 1 - 2004 - 12. The purpose is twofold - on the one hand we verify if such a relationship does exist; on the other hand we select what crime types are related to the business cycle and if they are leading, coincident or lagging. The study finds that most of the crime types show a counter-cyclical behavior with respect to the overall economic performance, but only a few of them have an evident relationship with the business cycle. Furthermore, some crime offenses, such as bankruptcy, embezzlement and fraudulent insolvency, seem to anticipate business cycle, in line with recent global events.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 201023.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
crime; common factors; dynamic factor models; business cycle;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- K0 - Law and Economics - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAW-2010-11-27 (Law & Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-11-27 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
- Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2007.
"Youth Unemployment and Crime in France,"
2007-33, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Fougère, Denis & Kramarz, Francis & Pouget, Julien, 2006. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," CEPR Discussion Papers 5600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fougère, Denis & Kramarz, Francis & Pouget, Julien, 2006. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," IZA Discussion Papers 2009, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- OA. Carboni & C. Detotto, 2013. "The economic consequences of crime in Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201303, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ernesto Batteta).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.