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Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe

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  • Sona Benecka
  • Ludmila Fadejeva
  • Martin Feldkircher

Abstract

This paper investigates the international effects of a euro area monetary policy shock, focusing on countries from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). To that end, we use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and employ shadow rates as a proxy for the monetary policy stance during normal and zero-lower-bound periods. We propose a new way of modeling euro area countries in a multi-country framework, accounting for joint monetary policy, and a novel approach to simultaneously identifying shocks. Our results show that in most euro area and CESEE countries, prices adjust and output falls in response to a euro area monetary tightening, but with a substantial degree of heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/2, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/2
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    2. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    5. Margarit Monica-Ionelia, 2021. "The Characteristics Of Interest Rate Channel In Central And East Europe," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 324-332, February.
    6. Magdalena Grothe, 2023. "Monetary Policy Spillovers to Polish Financial Markets," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 1-10.
    7. Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ & Antonija Buljan & Mirna Dumèiæ, 2020. "Real interest rate convergence and monetary policy independence in CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(2), pages 349-380.
    8. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Jan Frait & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana, 2018. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2018," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as18 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Andrea Colabella, 2021. "Do ECB's Monetary Policies Benefit EMEs? A GVAR Analysis on the Global Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises and Postcrises Period," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 472-494, April.
    11. Ouerk, Salima, 2023. "ECB unconventional monetary policy and volatile bank flows: Spillover effects on emerging market economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 175-211.
    12. Margarit Monica-Ionelia, 2022. "Using The Bayesian Var In Monetary Policy Analysis: A Literature Review," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 212-216, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area monetary policy; global vector autoregression; spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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