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The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs

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  • Jayasri Dutta
  • Stephen Morris

Abstract

At a Rational Expectations Equilibrium (REE), individuals are assumed to know the map from states to prices. This hypothesis has two components, that agents agree (consensus), and that they have point expectations (degeneracy). We consider economies where agents' beliefs are described by a joint distribution on states and prices, and these beliefs are fulfilled at equilibrium. Beliefs are self-fulfilling if every price in the support of the distribution is an equilibrium price. The corresponding equilibria are Beliefs Equilibria (BE). The further restriction that agents have the same beliefs results in Common Beliefs Equilibria (CBE). We study the relationship between BE, CBE, and REE, thus isolating the role of consensus and of degeneracy in achieving rational expectations.

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Paper provided by Penn Economics Department in its series Penn CARESS Working Papers with number 269cceedcbd401a5e46548b88874373f.

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Handle: RePEc:cla:penntw:269cceedcbd401a5e46548b88874373f

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  1. ALLEN, Beth & DUTTA , Jayasri & POLEMARCHAKIS , Heracles, 1994. "Equilibrium Selections," CORE Discussion Papers 1994071, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Peck, James & Shell, Karl, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-29, October.
  3. McAllister, Patrick H., 1990. "Rational behavior and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 332-363, December.
  4. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  5. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-78, December.
  6. Allen, Beth, 1985. "The existence of fully rational expectations approximate equilibria with noisy price observations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 213-253, December.
  7. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
  8. R. Aumann, 2010. "Correlated Equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian Rationality," Levine's Bibliography 513, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Allen, Beth, 1981. "A class of monotone economies in which rational expectations equilibria exist but prices do not reveal all information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 227-232.
  10. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
  11. Ausubel, Lawrence M., 1990. "Partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-126, February.
  12. Geanakoplos, John & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1989. "Real indeterminacy with financial assets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 22-38, February.
  13. Beth Allen & Jayasri Dutta & Haraklis M. Polemarchakis, 1994. "Equilibrium selections," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Brandenburger, Adam & Dekel, Eddie, 1987. "Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1391-1402, November.
  15. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1987. "Correlated equilibria and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 364-373, December.
  16. Stephen Morris, . ""Justifying Rational Expectations''," CARESS Working Papres 95-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  17. Anderson, Robert M. & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1982. "On the existence of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-278, April.
  18. Roy Radner, 1997. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1594, David K. Levine.
  19. Allen, Beth E, 1981. "Generic Existence of Completely Revealing Equilibria for Economies with Uncertainty when Prices Convey Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1173-99, September.
  20. Polemarchakis, H M & Siconolfi, P, 1993. "Asset Markets and the Information Revealed by Prices," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 645-61, October.
  21. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-94, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Krebs, Tom, 2001. "Endogenous probabilities and the information revealed by prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, September.
  2. Herings,Jean-Jacques & Rohde,Kirsten I.M., 2004. "Time-inconsistent Preferences in a General Equilibrium Model," Research Memorandum 016, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  3. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2006. "Rationalizable Expectations," Discussion Paper Series dp461, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  4. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 1997. "Extrinsic Uncertainty and the Informational Role of Prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 154-180, November.
  5. Felipe Zurita, 2001. "Speculation in Financial Markets: A Survey," Documentos de Trabajo 197, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  6. Beaudry, Paul & Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2003. "An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 76-103, November.
  7. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society.
  8. Ostrovsky, Michael, 2009. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders," Research Papers 2053, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  9. Elchanan Ben-Porath, 2007. "Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001494, UCLA Department of Economics.
  10. Jayasri Dutta & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2012. "Comment on "Sovereign Bailouts and Senior Loans"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 292-297 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Hahn, Frank, 1999. "Notes on Sequence Economies, Transaction Costs, and Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 203-218, June.
  12. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
  13. João Correia da Silva, 2014. "Two-period economies with price-contingent deliveries," FEP Working Papers 529, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  14. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2007. "Rationalizable Expectations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001499, UCLA Department of Economics.
  15. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
  16. Heifetz, Aviad & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1998. "Partial Revelation with Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 171-181, May.
  17. Elchanan Ben-Porath, 2007. "Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion Paper Series dp462, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  18. Ben-Porath, Elchanan & Heifetz, Aviad, 2011. "Common knowledge of rationality and market clearing in economies with asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2608-2626.

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