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Trade with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Author Info
Elchanan Ben-Porath ()
Abstract

The paper analyzes an economy with asymmetric information in which agents trade in contingent assets. The new feature in the model is that each agent may have any prior belief on the states of nature and thus the posterior belief of an agent maybe any probability distribution that is consistent with his private information. We study two solution concepts: Equilibrium, which assumes rationality and market clearing, and common knowledge equilibrium (CKE) which makes the stronger assumption that rationality, market clearing, and the parameters which de?ne the economy are common knowledge. The two main results characterize the set of equilibrium prices and the set of CKE prices in terms of parameters which specify for each state s and event E the amount of money in the hands of agents who know the event E at the state s. The characterizations that are obtained apply to a broad class of preferences which include all preferences that can be represented by the expectation of a state dependent monotone utility function. One implication of these results is a characterization of the information that is revealed in a CKE.

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Paper provided by Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem in its series Discussion Paper Series with number dp462.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:huj:dispap:dp462

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  1. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Morris, . ""Justifying Rational Expectations''," CARESS Working Papres 95-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Desgranges, G. & Guesnerie, R., 1996. "Common knowledge and the information revealed through prices: some conjectures," DELTA Working Papers 96-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  4. Kreps, David M., 1977. "A note on "fulfilled expectations" equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Aviad Heifetz, 2006. "Rationalizable Expectations," Discussion Paper Series dp461, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
  8. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dutta, Jayasri & Morris, Stephen, 1997. "The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 231-244, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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