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Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders

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  • Michael Ostrovsky

Abstract

This paper studies information aggregation in dynamic markets with a finite number of partially informed strategic traders. It shows that for a broad class of securities, information in such markets always gets aggregated. Trading takes place in a bounded time interval, and in every equilibrium, as time approaches the end of the interval, the market price of a "separable" security converges in probability to its expected value conditional on the traders' pooled information. If the security is "non-separable," then there exists a common prior over the states of the world and an equilibrium such that information does not get aggregated. The class of separable securities includes, among others, Arrow-Debreu securities, whose value is one in one state of the world and zero in all others, and "additive" securities, whose value can be interpreted as the sum of traders' signals.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 2595-2647

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:80:y:2012:i:6:p:2595-2647

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  1. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1995. "The Loser's Curse and Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions," Discussion Papers 1147, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Jayasri Dutta & Stephen Morris, . "The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs," Penn CARESS Working Papers 269cceedcbd401a5e46548b88, Penn Economics Department.
  3. Peter DeMarzo & Costis Skiadas, 1999. "On the uniqueness of fully informative rational expectations equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
  4. Mikhail Golosov & Guido Lorenzoni & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2009. "Decentralized Trading with Private Information," NBER Working Papers 15513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Philip J Reny & Motty Perry, 2006. "Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1231-1269, 09.
  6. Wilson, Robert, 1977. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 511-18, October.
  7. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, et al, 1990. "Common Knowledge of an Aggregate of Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1235-39, September.
  8. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman E. Ozdaglar, 2010. "Opinion Dynamics and Learning in Social Networks," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000222, David K. Levine.
  2. Mikhail Golosov & Guido Lorenzoni & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2009. "Decentralized Trading with Private Information," NBER Working Papers 15513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  4. Alp Atakan & Mehmet Ekmekci, 2012. "Auctions, Actions, and the Failure of Information Aggregation," Discussion Papers 1553, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.

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