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Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

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  • Itzhak Gilboa
  • David Schmeidler

Abstract

A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality-case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality-case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past lends to the plausibility of the eventuality.

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Paper provided by www.najecon.org in its series NajEcon Working Paper Reviews with number 391749000000000544.

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Date of creation: 10 May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cla:najeco:391749000000000544

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