Transition vers le marché du travail au Canada : Portrait de la situation actuelle et perspective historique

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Transition vers le marché du travail au Canada : Portrait de la situation actuelle et perspective historique

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Daniel Parent ()

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Daniel Parent

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the school-to-work transition process of young Canadians, particularly individuals with low levels of education, and to situate it in the context of the evolution in the value of a high school diploma over the 1981-1996 period, conditional on not pursuing post-secondary education. To do so I make use of Statistics Canada's School Leavers Survey and its Follow-Up (SLSF) which contains details on the earnings, job, and training histories in addition to a wealth of information on student performance in high school, family background, and the incidence of work while in school. To provide a historical perspective, I also use the 1981, 1986, 1991, and 1996 Canadian Censuses to see whether the value of holding a high school diploma (excluding the option value of pursuing post-secondary education) has markedly changed over the last 15-20 years. Evidence from the Censuses shows that 1) the premium to holding just a high school diploma in Canada is substantially lower than in the United States; and 2) labour earnings of high school graduates have stagnated and even decreased relative to those of dropouts, without major changes in the relative employment rates. Again, this is in stark contrast to the U.S. situation where the wage premium to a high school degree has in fact markedly increased over the same period of time. The evidence concerning the wage premium to a university degree is that it has been increasing since the mid 80's. Relative employment rates of university graduates have also increased. Turning to the SLSF, it is shown that high school graduates' labour market outcomes are essentially no better than those of dropouts, except perhaps in terms of employment ratest. Overall, the results suggest that we should not, perhaps, be surprised that Canada has both a fairly high rate of dropping out from high school and high enrollment rates in universities.

Nous cherchons dans cette étude à examiner le processus de transition de l'école vers le marché du travail et à l'examiner dans le contexte de l'évolution dans la valeur de détenir un diplôme d'études secondaires depuis 1981. Pour ce faire nous faisons usage de deux sources de microdonnées, soit les Recensements de 1981 à 1996 ainsi que le Suivi de l'enquête sur les sortants effectué à l'automne 1995. Les principaux résultats découlant de l'analyse des données de recensement nous indiquent que bien que les diplômés du secondaire aient conservé un avantage en terme de taux d'emploi par rapport aux sortants depuis 1981, l'avantage salarial est demeuré relativement faible et a vraisemblablement diminué. Par ailleurs, l'avantage des diplômés universitaires par rapport aux diplômés du secondaire, que ce soit pour les taux d'emploi ou pour les salaires moyens, s'est quant à lui accru au cours des années. Quant aux données du Suivi, elles nous indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de différence majeure dans le processus de transition vers le marché du travail entre les sortants et les diplômés, que ce soit en terme de la distribution du temps passé entre la fin des études et le début du premier emploi à temps complet ou en terme de la distribution des salaires. Les diplômés du secondaire, tout comme dans le cas des données de recensement, ont toutefois une probabilité plus grande d'avoir occupé un emploi à temps complet. En ce qui concerne l'incidence de la formation appuyée par l'employeur, il semble que les diplômés du secondaire n'aient aucun avantage par rapport aux sortants alors que les diplômés universitaires ont un très net avantage sur l'un ou l'autre groupe, bien que les résultats soient légèrement sensibles à la spécification utilisée. Globalement, les résultats nous donnent à penser qu'on ne devrait peut-être pas se surprendre d'observer à la fois un taux élevé d'abandon au secondaire en même temps qu'un taux de fréquentation scolaire élevé à l'université.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 99s-39.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:99s-39

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Lynch, Lisa M, 1992. "Private-Sector Training and the Earnings of Young Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 299-312, March.
David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Adapting to Circumstances: The Evolution of Work, School, and Living Arrangements Among North American Youth," NBER Working Papers 6142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Adapting to Circumstances: The Evolution of Work, School, and Living Arrangements Among North American Youth," Working Papers 765, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
Parent, Daniel, 1999. "Wages and Mobility: The Impact of Employer-Provided Training," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 298-317, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Daniel Parent, 1995. "Wages and Mobility: The Impact of Employer-Provided Training," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-27, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
- Parent, D., 1995. "Wages and Mobility: the Impact of Employer-Provided Training," Cahiers de recherche 9507, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]

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