IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp2416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pension Liquidity Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Kristy Jansen

    (University of Southern California and De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • Sven Klingler

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Angelo Ranaldo

    (University of St. Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Patty Duijm

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

Abstract

Pension funds rely on interest rate swaps to hedge the interest rate risk arising from their liabilities. Analyzing unique data on Dutch pension funds, we show that this hedging behavior exposes pension funds to liquidity risk due to margin calls, which can be as large as 15% of their total assets. Our analysis uncovers three key findings: (i) pension funds with tighter regulatory constraints use swaps more aggressively; (ii) in response to rising interest rates, triggering margin calls, pension funds predominantly sell safe and short-term government bonds; (iii) we demonstrate that this procyclical selling adversely affects the prices of these bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristy Jansen & Sven Klingler & Angelo Ranaldo & Patty Duijm, 2024. "Pension Liquidity Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 24-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4728797
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timmer, Yannick, 2018. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 268-286.
    2. Aleksandar Andonov & Rob M.M.J. Bauer & K.J. Martijn Cremers, 2017. "Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2555-2595.
    3. Manconi, Alberto & Massa, Massimo & Yasuda, Ayako, 2012. "The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 491-518.
    4. Maddalena Ghio & Linda Rousova & Dilyara Salakhova & Mr. German Villegas Bauer, 2023. "Derivative Margin Calls: A New Driver of MMF Flows," IMF Working Papers 2023/061, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    6. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    7. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    8. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    9. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2021. "The evolution from life insurance to financial engineering," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 46(2), pages 89-111, September.
    10. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "An unintended consequence of holding dollar assets," Bank of England working papers 953, Bank of England.
    11. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    12. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2020-177, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    13. Ling-Ni Boon & Marie Brière & Sandra Rigot, 2018. "Regulation and Pension Fund Risk-Taking," Post-Print hal-02315479, HAL.
    14. Yiming Ma & Kairong Xiao & Yao Zeng, 2022. "Mutual Fund Liquidity Transformation and Reverse Flight to Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4674-4711.
    15. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2022. "Global Life Insurers during a Low Interest Rate Environment," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 503-508, May.
    16. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2019. "An Explanation of Negative Swap Spreads: Demand for Duration from Underfunded Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 675-710, April.
    17. Boon, L.N. & Brière, M. & Rigot, S., 2018. "Regulation and pension fund risk-taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-41.
    18. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    19. Yen-Cheng Chang & Harrison Hong & Inessa Liskovich, 2015. "Regression Discontinuity and the Price Effects of Stock Market Indexing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 212-246.
    20. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Anastasia Kartasheva & Christian T Lundblad & Wolf Wagner, 2022. "Insurers as Asset Managers and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5483-5534.
    21. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    23. Ge, Shan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2021. "The role of financial conditions in portfolio choices: The case of insurers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 803-830.
    24. Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "An anatomy of the 2022 gilt market crisis," Bank of England working papers 1019, Bank of England.
    25. Zhi Da & Borja Larrain & Clemens Sialm & José Tessada, 2018. "Destabilizing Financial Advice: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(10), pages 3720-3755.
    26. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    27. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Kristy Jansen, 2023. "Long-term Investors, Demand Shifts, and Yields," Working Papers 769, DNB.
    3. Rizzo, Emanuele, 2018. "Essays on corporate governance and the impact of regulation on financial markets," Other publications TiSEM b5158260-ea13-4763-b992-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Toomas Laarits & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2022. "Stock Market Stimulus," NBER Working Papers 29827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel, 2020. "Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia," Discussion Papers 38/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    7. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ishita Sen, 2023. "Regulatory Limits to Risk Management," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(6), pages 2175-2223.
    9. Kashyap, Anil K & Kovrijnykh, Natalia & Li, Jian & Pavlova, Anna, 2021. "The benchmark inclusion subsidy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 756-774.
    10. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    11. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    12. Antonio Falato & Ali Hortaçsu & Dan Li & Chaehee Shin, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3055-3102, December.
    13. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco A. Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2016. "Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-64, Swiss Finance Institute.
    14. Jiang, Hao & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zheng, Lu, 2020. "Tracking biased weights: asset pricing implications of value-weighted indexing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Wagner, Alexander F. & Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano, 2022. "Do institutional investors stabilize equity markets in crisis periods? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Matteo Bonetti, 2021. "Pension Fund Equity Performance: Herding Does Not Pay Off," Working Papers 729, DNB.
    17. Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013. "Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
    18. Dong Lou & Hongjun Yan & Jinfan Zhang, 2013. "Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1891-1912.
    19. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    20. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension funds; fixed income; interest rate swaps; liability hedging; liquidity risk; margin calls; price impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.