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When Everyone Runs for the Exit

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Author Info
Lasse Heje Pedersen

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Abstract

The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15297.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15297

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Huberman, Gur & Halka, Dominika, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-78, Summer.
  8. Coughenour, Jay F. & Saad, Mohsen M., 2004. "Common market makers and commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 37-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark Mitchell & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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