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When Everyone Runs for the Exit

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  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje

Abstract

The dangers of shouting ``fire'' in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7436.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7436

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Related research

Keywords: asset pricing; crisis; liquidity risk; quant; risk management; run; unconventional monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 4718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2000. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm152, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
  3. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  4. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2006. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5491, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Nagel, Stefan, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Markus K Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pederson, 2003. "Predatory Trading," FMG Discussion Papers dp441, Financial Markets Group.
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  17. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
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  22. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 15040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Chollete, Loran, 2011. "A Model of Endogenous Extreme Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/2, University of Stavanger.
  3. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Tord S. Krogh & Jon Vislie, 2012. "The macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, pages 2.
  4. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2010. "Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds," NBER Working Papers 15698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, 08.
  6. Economou, Fotini & Kostakis, Alexandros & Philippas, Nikolaos, 2011. "Cross-country effects in herding behaviour: Evidence from four south European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 443-460, July.

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