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When Everyone Runs for the Exit

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  • Lasse Pedersen

    (New York University, CEPR, and NBER)

Abstract

The dangers of shouting “fire” in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 177-199

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:4:a:10

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  1. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
  3. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Nicolae B. Garleanu & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 12887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
  6. Acharya, Viral V. & Gale, Douglas M & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Evaporating Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 17653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2006. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," NBER Working Papers 12020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2007. "Crashes and recoveries in illiquid markets," Working Paper 0708, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Bruce Ian Carlin & Miguel Sousa Lobo & S. Viswanathan, 2007. "Episodic Liquidity Crises: Cooperative and Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2235-2274, October.
  12. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  13. Mark Mitchell & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," NBER Working Papers 12877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  15. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2004. "Predatory Trading," NBER Working Papers 10755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  19. Huberman, G. & Halka, D., 1999. "Systematic Liquidity," Papers 99-9, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  20. Chenghuan Sean Chu & Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 2009. "Strategic Trading in Multiple Assets and the Effects on Market Volatiliy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 143-172, December.
  21. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
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  24. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mancini Griffoli, Tommaso & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2012. "Limits to Arbitrage during the Crisis: Finding Liquidity Constraints and Covered Interest Parity," Working Papers on Finance 1212, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  2. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis‌, . "Stock market liquidity and macro-liquidity shocks: Evidence from the 2007-2009 financial crisis," Working Papers 2013_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2010. "Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds," NBER Working Papers 15698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Acharya, Viral V. & Gale, Douglas M & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
  6. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
  7. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Tord S. Krogh & Jon Vislie, 2012. "The macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, pages 2.
  8. Economou, Fotini & Kostakis, Alexandros & Philippas, Nikolaos, 2011. "Cross-country effects in herding behaviour: Evidence from four south European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 443-460, July.
  9. Chollete, Loran, 2011. "A Model of Endogenous Extreme Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/2, University of Stavanger.

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