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Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets

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  • Hongjun Yan

    ()

  • Jinfan Zhang

    ()

  • Dong Lou

    ()

Abstract

We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly before subsequent auctions and recover shortly after. This price pattern implies a large issuance cost for the Treasury Department, which is estimated to be between 9 and 18 basis points of the auction size. For example, this cost amounts to over half a billion dollars for issuing Treasury notes alone in 2007. Our results appear to be consistent with the hypothesis of primary dealers’ limited risk-bearing capacity and the imperfect capital mobility of end investors in the Treasury market (e.g., federal agencies, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and etc.), highlighting the important role of capital mobility even in the most liquid financial markets.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp684.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp684

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Cited by:
  1. Jennie Bai & Michael Fleming & Casidhe Horan, 2013. "The microstructure of China's government bond market," Staff Reports 622, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Kandrac, John & Schlusche, Bernd, 2013. "Flow effects of large-scale asset purchases," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 330-335.
  3. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. D'Amico, Stefania & Fan, Roger & Kitzul, Yuriy, 2013. "The Scarcity Value of Treasury Collateral: Repo Market Effects of Security-Specific Supply and Demand Factors," Working Paper Series WP-2013-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Catherine L. Mann & Oren Klachkin, 2011. "U.S. Treasury Auction Yields During Boom, Bust, and Quantitative Easing: Role for Fed and Foreign Purchasers," Working Papers 47, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised May 2012.

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