IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v76y2021i6p3055-3102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets

Author

Listed:
  • ANTONIO FALATO
  • ALI HORTAÇSU
  • DAN LI
  • CHAEHEE SHIN

Abstract

Fire sales induced by investor redemptions have powerful spillover effects among funds that hold the same assets, hurting peer funds' performance and flows, and leading to further asset sales with negative bond price impact. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in our fire‐sale spillover measure leads to a 45 (90) bp decrease in peer fund returns (flows) and a two percentage point increase in the likelihood of a large bond price drop. The results hold in a regression‐discontinuity design addressing identification concerns. Timing, heterogeneity, instrumental‐variable, and placebo tests further support the price‐impact mechanism. Model‐based counterfactual and stress‐test analyses quantify the financial stability implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Falato & Ali Hortaçsu & Dan Li & Chaehee Shin, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3055-3102, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:6:p:3055-3102
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13078
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.13078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
    2. Greenwood, Robin & Thesmar, David, 2011. "Stock price fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 471-490.
    3. Mark Egan & Ali Hortaçsu & Gregor Matvos, 2017. "Deposit Competition and Financial Fragility: Evidence from the US Banking Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 169-216, January.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    5. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Kartasheva, Anastasia & Lundblad, Christian T. & Wagner, Wolf, 2018. "Insurers as asset managers and systemic risk," ESRB Working Paper Series 75, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 57-95.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    8. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
    9. Nicholas Bloom & Mark Schankerman & John Van Reenen, 2013. "Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1347-1393, July.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    11. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    14. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    15. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December.
    16. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    17. Mozaffar Khan & Leonid Kogan & George Serafeim, 2012. "Mutual Fund Trading Pressure: Firm-Level Stock Price Impact and Timing of SEOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1371-1395, August.
    18. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2020. "Do fire sales create externalities?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 602-628.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    22. Adam Ashcraft & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Two Monetary Tools: Interest Rates and Haircuts," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 143-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    24. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    25. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    26. Yen-Cheng Chang & Harrison Hong & Inessa Liskovich, 2015. "Regression Discontinuity and the Price Effects of Stock Market Indexing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 212-246.
    27. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2008. "Star Power: The Effect of Monrningstar Ratings on Mutual Fund Flow," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 907-936, December.
    28. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
    29. Patrick E. McCabe, 2009. "The economics of the mutual fund trading scandal," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    31. Roberts, Michael R. & Whited, Toni M., 2013. "Endogeneity in Empirical Corporate Finance1," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 493-572, Elsevier.
    32. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    33. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    34. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    35. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    36. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    37. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    38. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    39. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-b.
    40. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101464 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    42. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-a.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Axelle Arquié, 2023. "Fire Sales and Bank Runs in the Presence of a Saving Allocation by Depositors," Working Papers 2023-09, CEPII research center.
    2. Thiago Fauvrelle & Mathias Skrutkowski, 2023. "Collateral pledgeability and asset manager portfolio choices during redemption waves," Working Papers 58, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Dec 2023.
    3. Grill, Michael & Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael, 2022. "Mutual fund suspensions during the COVID-19 market turmoil - asset liquidity, liquidity management tools and spillover effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Hoerova, Marie & Breckenfelder, Johannes, 2023. "Do non-banks need access to the lender of last resort? Evidence from fund runs," CEPR Discussion Papers 18122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Wu, Lan & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Pan, 2022. "Does the volatility spillover effect matter in oil price volatility predictability? Evidence from high-frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 299-306.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    2. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2020. "Do fire sales create externalities?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 602-628.
    3. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "Do Fire Sales Create Externalities?," NBER Working Papers 25104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Falato, Antonio & Goldstein, Itay & Hortaçsu, Ali, 2021. "Financial fragility in the COVID-19 crisis: The case of investment funds in corporate bond markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-52.
    5. Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013. "Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
    6. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2016. "Liquidity Transformation in Asset Management: Evidence from the Cash Holdings of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 22391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    8. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2016. "Liquidity transformation in asset management: Evidence from the cash holdings of mutual funds," ESRB Working Paper Series 23, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Antonio Falato & Itay Goldstein & Ali Hortaçsu, 2020. "Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 2020-98, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    10. Larrain, Borja & Muñoz, Daniel & Tessada, José, 2017. "Asset fire sales in equity markets: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 71-85.
    11. Bian, Jiangze & Da, Zhi & He, Zhiguo & Lou, Dong & Shue, Kelly & Zhou, Hao, 2021. "Margin trading and leverage management," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118851, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Aragon, George O. & Kim, Min S., 2023. "Fire sale risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 578-609.
    13. Choi, Jaewon & Hoseinzade, Saeid & Shin, Sean Seunghun & Tehranian, Hassan, 2020. "Corporate bond mutual funds and asset fire sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 432-457.
    14. Jannic Cutura & Gianpaolo Parise & Andreas Schrimpf, 2020. "Debt De-risking," BIS Working Papers 868, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yoshiyasu Koide & Yuji Shinozaki, 2022. "Rise of NBFIs and the Global Structural Change in the Transmission of Market Shocks," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    16. Wagner, Alexander F. & Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano, 2022. "Do institutional investors stabilize equity markets in crisis periods? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    18. Merrill, Craig B. & Nadauld, Taylor D. & Stulz, René M. & Sherlun, Shane M., 2021. "Were there fire sales in the RMBS market?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-37.
    19. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    20. Miguel Antón & Christopher Polk, 2014. "Connected Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1099-1127, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:6:p:3055-3102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.