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Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data

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  • C. Shimizu

    (Reitaku University)

  • W. E. Diewert

    (University of British Columbia)

  • K. G. Nishimura

    (Bank of Japan)

  • T. Watanabe

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e., the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e., cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We estimate the discount rate based on the share prices of REITs, which can be regarded as the stock market’s valuation of the set of properties owned by the REITs. As for the numerator, we use rental prices associated only with new rental contracts rather than those associated with all existing contracts. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 500 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2003 to 2010, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index; specifically, our index peaks in the first quarter of 2007, while the appraisal-based price index exhibits a turnaround only in the third quarter of 2008. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/320.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-307.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: Feb 2013
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf307

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  1. Geltner, David & Goetzmann, William, 2000. "Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 5-21, July.
  2. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2007. "Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble, Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 475-496, November.
  3. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
  4. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2012. "Estimating Real Estate Price Movements for High Frequency Tradable Indexes in a Scarce Data Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 522-543, August.
  5. Neil Crosby & Colin Lizieri & Patrick McAllister, 2010. "Means, motive and opportunity? Disentangling client influence on performance measurement appraisals," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 181-201, April.
  6. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Anomalies: The Law of One Price in Financial Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 191-202, Fall.
  7. Joseph T.L. Ooi & Seow‐Eng Ong & Poh‐Har Neo, 2011. "The Wealth Effects of Property Acquisitions: Evidence from Japanese and Singaporean REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 487-505, 09.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-64, September.
  10. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "The Paris OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes: Conclusions and Future Directions," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-12-12, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
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