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Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index

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Author Info
Geltner, David
Goetzmann, William

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Abstract

This article documents 20 years of performance of commercial real estate in the United States using a portfolio of properties that comprise the widely followed NCREIF Property Index (NPI). We develop an extension of the repeated-measures regression (RMR) to produce an improved version of the NCREIF Index that eliminates the "stale appraisal" and seasonality problems. We use this RMR version of the index to examine the magnitude and duration of the of the crash in property values in the early 1990s. The RMR Index is also compared with the NAREIT Index, and property-type subindices are developed using a Bayesian estimator. Finally, it is also shown how the RMR can be used to estimate the average magnitude of random valuation error in commercial property valuation. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 5-21
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:21:y:2000:i:1:p:5-21

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  1. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Geltner & Peiling Wei & David C. Ling, 2007. "Indices for Investment Benchmarking and Return Performance Analysis in Private Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(1), pages 93-118. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel P. McMillen, 2002. "The center restored: Chicago's residential price gradient reemerges," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jinliang Li & Robert M. Mooradian & Shiawee X. Yang, 2009. "The Information Content of the NCREIF Index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin Hoesli & Jon Lekander & Witold Witkiewicz, 2004. "New International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(2), pages 161-206. [Downloadable!]
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