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Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

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  • Steven Devaney
  • Roberto Martinez Diaz

Abstract

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Devaney & Roberto Martinez Diaz, 2011. "Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 269-289, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:269-289
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2011.601317
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil Crosby & Steven Devaney & Tony Key & George Matysiak, 2003. "Valuation Accuracy: Reconciling the Timing of the Valuation and Sale," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2003-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    2. Neil Crosby & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Liquidity In Commercial Property Markets: Deconstructing The Transaction Process," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Shimizu & W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Estimating quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using Japanese REIT data," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 217-239, September.
    2. Devaney, Steven & Xiao, Qin, 2017. "Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: A cross-continental spectrum," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 132-151.
    3. Mick Silver & Brian Graf, 2014. "Commercial Property Price Indexes: Problems of Sparse Data, Spatial Spillovers, and Weighting," IMF Working Papers 2014/072, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2013. "The London Commercial Property Price Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 588-616, November.
    5. Andrea Chegut & Piet Eichholtz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in International Office Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 317-350, August.

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