Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data
AbstractWe propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e., the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e., cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We estimate the discount rate based on the share prices of REITs, which can be regarded as the stock market’s valuation of the set of properties owned by the REITs. As for the numerator, we use rental prices associated only with new rental contracts rather than those associated with all existing contracts. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 500 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2003 to 2010, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index; specifically, our index peaks in the first quarter of 2007, while the appraisal-based price index exhibits a turnaround only in the third quarter of 2008. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 004.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: Feb 2013
Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan
Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
REIT; quality adjusted price index; hedonic regression; Tobin’s q; risk premium;
Other versions of this item:
- C. Shimizu & W. E. Diewert & K. G. Nishimura & T. Watanabe, 2012. "Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-307, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Feb 2013.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
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