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Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

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Author Info

  • Shaun Bond

    ()

  • Soosung Hwang

    ()

  • Zhenguo Lin

    ()

  • Kerry Vandell

    ()

Abstract

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin ( 2004 ), and Lin and Vandell ( 2001 , 2005 ), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9022-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 447-461

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:447-461

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Liquidity risk; Commercial real estate; Time on market; Transaction process; UK; R33; G11; G32;

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References

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  1. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
  2. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  4. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
  5. Soosung Hwang & Shaun Bond, 2005. "Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggreagation in Real Estate Price Indices," Working Papers wp05-17, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  6. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang, 2003. "A Measure of Fundamental Volatility in the Commercial Property Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 577-600, December.
  7. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, 06.
  8. Zhenguo Lin & Kerry D. Vandell, 2007. "Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 291-330, 09.
  9. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, 06.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," THEMA Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  2. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
  3. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu & Kerry Vandell, 2009. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Comment and Extension," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 183-191, February.
  4. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
  5. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2011. "Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 152-157, June.
  6. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, 06.
  7. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2008. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," THEMA Working Papers 2008-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  8. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2010. "Home Price, Time-on-Market, and Seller Heterogeneity Under Changing Market Conditions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 272-293, October.
  9. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.
  10. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
  11. İnaltekin, Hazer & Jarrow, Robert A. & Sağlam, Mehmet & Yıldırım, Yıldıray, 2011. "Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 171-179.
  12. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
  13. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, 03.

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