Last Minute Policies and the Incumbency Advantage
AbstractThis paper models a purely informational mechanism behind the incumbency advantage. In a two-period electoral campaign with two policy issues, a specialized incumbent and an unspecialized, but possibly more competent challenger compete for election by voters who are heterogeneously informed about the state of the world. Due to the asymmetries in government responsibility between candidates, the incumbent's statements may convey information on the relevance of the issues to voters. In equilibrium, the incumbent sometimes strategically releases his statement early and thus signals the importance of his signature issue to the voters. This gives rise to the incumbency advantage. We find that, since the incumbent’s positioning on the issue reveals private information which the challenger can use in later statements, the incumbent's incentives to distort the campaign are decreasing in the quality of the incumbent, as previously documented by the empirical literature. However, we show that this implies a non-monotonicity in the distortions that arise in equilibrium.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3773.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
incumbency advantage; electoral competition; information revelation;
Other versions of this item:
- Elena Manzoni & Stefan P. Penczynski, 2013. "Last minute policies and the incumbency advantage," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics 229, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2013.
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga & Toke S. Aidt, 2009.
"Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: A New Test of the Rational Political Business Cycle Model,"
NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho
24/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Toke Aidt & Francisco Veiga & Linda Veiga, 2011. "Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 21-44, July.
- Aidt, T.S. & Veiga, F.J. & Veiga, L.G., 2009. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: A New Test of the Rational Political Business Cycle Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 0934, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Roland Hodler & Simon Loertscher & Dominic Rohner, 2007.
"Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne
996, The University of Melbourne.
- Hodler, R. & Loertscher , S. & Rohner, D., 2007. "Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 0738, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Arnaud Dellis, 2009. "The Salient Issue of Issue Salience," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(2), pages 203-231, 04.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.