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Depletion and Development: Natural Resource Supply with Endogenous Field Opening

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  • Anthony J. Venables

Abstract

This paper develops a model in which supply of a non-renewable resource can adjust through two margins: the rate of depletion and the rate of field opening. Faster depletion of existing fields means that less of the resource can ultimately be extracted, and optimal depletion of open fields follows a (modified) Hotelling rule. Opening a new field involves sinking a capital cost, and the timing of field opening is chosen to maximize the present value of the field. Output dynamics depend on both depletion and field opening, and supply responses to price changes are studied. In contrast to Hotelling, the long run equilibrium rate of growth of prices is independent of the rate of interest, depending instead on characteristics of demand and geologically determined supply.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3608.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3608

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Keywords: non-renewable resource; depletion; exhaustible; Hotelling; fossil fuel; carbon tax;

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  1. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Michel Moreaux & Mabel Tidball, 2008. "Ordering the Extraction of Polluting Nonrenewable Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1128-44, June.
  2. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2007. "Public Policies against Global Warming," CESifo Working Paper Series 2087, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. John Hartwick & Murray Kemp & Ngo van Long, 1980. "Set-up Costs and Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 412, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: A supply side approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 19638, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Fischer, Carolyn & Laxminarayan, Ramanan, 2005. "Sequential development and exploitation of an exhaustible resource: do monopoly rights promote conservation?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 500-515, May.
  6. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2002. "Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 301-325, November.
  7. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Favard, Pascal & Gaudet, Gerard & Moreaux, Michel, 1998. "On the Optimal Order of Natural Resource Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute Is Limited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 153-170, May.
  8. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
  9. Holland, Stephen P., 2003. "Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 539-556, November.
  10. Nystad, Arild N., 1987. "Rate sensitivity and the optimal choice of production capacity of petroleum reservoirs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 37-45, January.
  11. Lewis, Tracy R, 1982. "Sufficient Conditions for Extracting Least Cost Resource First," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1081-83, July.
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