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Evaluating Emission Trading as a Policy Tool - Evidence from Conditional Jump Models

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  • Marc Gronwald
  • Janina Ketterer

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Abstract

This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected movements and that a considerable degree of uncertainty is present. According to the real option literature, uncertainty has adverse effects on investment decisions. Thus, investments in abatement technologies are likely to be postponed due to the peculiar characteristics of emission allowance prices. Furthermore, this price behavior is at odds with the theoretical notion that emission prices equal marginal abatement costs.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-06/cesifo1_wp2682.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2682.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2682

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Related research

Keywords: emission allowance prices; jumps; GARCH; real options;

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References

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  1. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March.
  3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Working papers WP 4047-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-89, July.
  6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1981. " The Optimal Production of an Exhaustible Resource When Price is Exogenous and Stochastic," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(2), pages 277-88.
  7. SANIN, Maria Eugenia & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2009. "Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market: lessons from the future," CORE Discussion Papers 2009024, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2009. "Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-248, March.
  9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
  10. Wing H. Chan, 2003. "A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 669-685, November.
  11. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  12. Margaret Insley, 2002. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Working Papers 02008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2002.
  13. Chan, Wing H., 2004. "Conditional correlated jump dynamics in foreign exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 23-28, April.
  14. Thomas Dangl & Franz Wirl, 2007. "The consequences of irreversibility on optimal intertemporal emission policies under uncertainty," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 143-166, June.
  15. Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Johann Wackerbauer & Jutta Albrecht-Saavedra & Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Jana Lippelt & Johannes Pfeiffer & Luise Röpke & Markus Zimmer, 2011. "Bewertung der klimapolitischen Maßnahmen und Instrumente: eine Studie im Auftrag der E.ON AG," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 51, June.
  2. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.

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