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A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth

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Author Info
Michael Funke ()
Marc Gronwald ()

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Abstract

In this paper, we apply a convex hull approach to counterfactual analysis of trade openness and growth. The experiments we choose evaluate the importance of trade openness for growth across African countries. Specifically, we ask the question “what would happen if African countries were more open?”. The evidence indicates that several countries don´t fall within the convex hull of the observed data and therefore counterfactual inferences are risky. This conclusion is at odds with the literature arguing that greater trade openness would unequivocally lead to higher growth in Africa.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2692.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2692

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Related research
Keywords: openness; economic growth; robustness; counterfactuals; convex hull;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2002. " How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 57-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
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  4. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  5. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 335-76, October.
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2007. "Trade Openness and Growth: Pursuing Empirical Glasnost," IMF Working Papers 07/156, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 8460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," NBER Working Papers 11947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Cuadras, C. M. & Fortiana, J., 1995. "A Continuous Metric Scaling Solution for a Random Variable," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Peter K. Schott, 2006. "The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports," NBER Working Papers 12173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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