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Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II

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Author Info
Frey, Bruno S.
Kucher, Marcel

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Abstract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper, we analyse government bond prices of Germany and Austria traded on the Swiss bourse during WWII. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and the loss and gain of national sovereignty. Other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices: The most prominent example is Germany's capitulation in 1945. The analysis of financial markets provides a fruitful method to evaluate the importance contemporaries attached to historical events.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 221.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_221

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Related research
Keywords: Financial markets; economic history; WWII; Europe; cliometrics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Sobel, Russell S, 1998. " Exchange Rate Evidence on the Effectiveness of United Nations Policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 1-25, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  5. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Goldin, Claudia, 1995. "Cliometrics and the Nobel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 191-208, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 165-79, April.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vincent Medina & Cyr-Denis Nidier, 2003. "Pricing war within a real option framework * The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the French Ministry of Defence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 425-435, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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