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Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II

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  • Bruno S. Frey
  • Marcel Kucher

Abstract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper, we analyse government bond prices of Germany and Austria traded on the Swiss bourse during WWII. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and the loss and gain of national sovereignty. Other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices: The most prominent example is Germany's capitulation in 1945. The analysis of financial markets provides a fruitful method to evaluate the importance contemporaries attached to historical events.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-1999/WP221.PDF
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 221.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_221

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Related research

Keywords: Financial markets; economic history; WWII; Europe; cliometrics;

References

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  1. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  2. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "Cliometrics and the Nobel," NBER Historical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kristen L. Willard & Timothy W. Guinnane & Harvey S. Rosen, 1995. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," NBER Working Papers 5381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December.
  5. Russell Sobel, 1998. "Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 1-25, April.
  6. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 165-79, April.
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Vincent Medina & Cyr-Denis Nidier, 2003. "Pricing war within a real option framework," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 425-435.

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